Credit Saison: 28/3 likely to be a fallow period for profit growth

研报英文原文证据摘录

Credit Saison: 28/3 likely to be a fallow period for profit growth

Global Markets Research

9 July 2026Credit Saison

8253.T 8253 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN INSURANCE & DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS

Rating28/3 likely to be a fallow period for profit growth Remains Neutral

Target price

We forecast slowdown in earnings momentum at real estate-related Increased from 4,300 JPY 4,600

operations, do not expect profit growth to pick up again until 29/3

Closing price JPY 4,682We retain Neutral rating at target price of ¥4,600 8 July 2026

We revise our earnings forecasts for Credit Saison. We make no major changes to our

Implied upside -1.8%outlook for business profits excluding one-time factors. We still forecast profit growth of

only 5–8% in 27/3–28/3, followed by 10–12% in 29/3–31/3. We raise the fair-value P/E we

apply to our 27/3 EPS forecast from 8.0x to 8.5x to reflect the rise in sector share prices

multiples, raise our target price to ¥4,600, and retain our Neutral rating.

Relative performance chart

We expect global segment to move into profit, real estate-related and finance

segments to peak out

27/3: We retain our business profit forecast of ¥110.0bn (up 8% y-y). We expect overall

business profit growth to be driven by a move into profit at the global segment, particularly

at the lending business in India, offsetting a decline in profits at the real estate-related

segment due to fewer sales of property developments. We expect profits to turn

downwards at the finance segment, which includes loans and guarantees for investment

real estate, on slower sales growth and higher procurement costs as market interest rates

rise. Our 27/3 earnings forecasts assume DPS of ¥170 and share buybacks of ¥10.0bn.

28/3: We retain our business profit forecast of ¥116.0bn (up 5% y-y). We expect business