Taiwan: Export growth surprised to the downside in June, likely reflecting payback effects

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Taiwan: Export growth surprised to the downside in June, likely reflecting payback effects

Global Markets Research

9 July 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia Pacific/Asia ex-Japan

Research AnalystsTaiwan: Export growth surprised to the downside

Asia Economicsin June, likely reflecting payback effects

Jeong Woo Park - NSL

Amid a sustained AI upcycle and stronger domestic demand, we raise our jeongwoo.park@nomura.com

Q2 and 2026 GDP growth forecasts to 10.9% y-o-y and 11.6%, respectively. +65 6433 6197

Si Ying Toh, CFA - NSL

• Export growth surprised to the downside, moderating to 40.3% y-o-y (-3.3% m-o-m sa) siying.toh@nomura.com

in June from 51.7% y-o-y (11.9% m-o-m sa) in May. Nonetheless, growth in exports of +65 6433 6666

ICT products (which includes AI servers) and chips remained in high double-digit

territory, suggesting AI demand remains strong.

• Import growth was stronger than expected in June at 51.8% y-o-y, reflecting a faster

expansion of capital goods imports and implying stronger domestic investment

momentum. Overall, the trade surplus narrowed to USD12.2bn in June from

USD17.9bn in May.

• Nomura’s view: The downside surprise in export growth likely reflects payback

effects after a strong outturn in May. Our upbeat view on the AI tech cycle remains

intact, as shipments of NVIDIA’s next-gen Vera Rubin systems starting in Q3 are likely

to boost export growth. Amid a sustained AI upcycle and stronger domestic demand,

we revise up our Q2 and 2026 GDP growth forecasts to 10.9% y-o-y (from 10.5%) and

11.6% (from 9.9%), respectively. We reiterate our view that the CBC is likely to deliver

two rate hikes (December 2026 and March 2027) to a terminal rate of 2.25%, given

our expectation of a more broad-based economic recovery, which should exert