A&D 2Q26 Earnings Preview and Model Updates: Aero Needs to Show Progress in Q2, Defense Trying to Emerge From Doldrums

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A&D 2Q26 Earnings Preview and Model Updates: Aero Needs to Show Progress in Q2, Defense Trying to Emerge From Doldrums

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

13 July 2026

A&D 2Q26 Earnings Preview and

Model Updates

Aero Needs to Show Progress in Q2, Defense Trying to

Emerge From Doldrums

The A&D sector was a tale of two cities in Q2; several comm’l aero stocks Aerospace & Defense

ACrebounded to new highs as concerns about the Middle East war faded. Defense, Seth M. Seifman, CFA

meanwhile, underperformed on a combination of capital flowing elsewhere, (1-212) 622-5597

midterm/budget concerns, and for the primes, chatter about legal limits on capital seth.m.seifman@jpmorgan.com

return. The bar, therefore, is higher for most Aero stocks this quarter than for Rocco J Barbero

defense, though a squeeze is more likely to prompt defense outperformance in (1-212) 622-8140

response to earnings reports at this time than any deep-rooted change in the rocco.j.barbero@jpmorgan.com

fundamental outlook. Within Aero, we like HWM into earnings after it under- Alexander Ladd

performed peers in recent months, and we expect estimates to move higher at RTX. (1-212) 622-0077

alex.ladd@jpmorgan.com

Within defense, we like HII most, with potential upside from imminent submarine J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

contracts. More thoughts are below, plus some model updates, but our full 2Q26

preview deck is here and JPM clients to should join our call at 10am ET (7/13) to

discuss further. Catalyst Watch is our near-term conviction

• Defense has performed poorly, lowering the bar, even if sea change in indicator for our equity coverage universe.

It is an indicator our research analysts can sentiment is unlikely. With some notable exceptions (GD, for example)