Insurance Brokers 2Q26 Preview: Exercise Caution Chasing the Laggards

研报英文原文证据摘录

Insurance Brokers 2Q26 Preview: Exercise Caution Chasing the Laggards

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

13 July 2026

Insurance Brokers 2Q26 Preview

Exercise Caution Chasing the Laggards

With P&C brokerage stocks showing signs of life in late 2Q26 as the broader market Insurance - Life & Nonlife

ACrotated into financials, we continue to like AON (Overweight) and MRSH Pablo S. Singzon

(Overweight). On the other hand, we remain cautious on RYAN (Underweight), (1-212) 622-2295

which is trading above where it was before it reduced forward expectations with 1Q26 pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

results. In personal lines, we prefer TWFG over GSHD (both Neutral). Kevin Wijendra

(1-212) 622-7054

• What has happened with P&C brokers since the end of 1Q26? kevin.wijendra@jpmorgan.com

Fundamentally, we think the operating environment for commercial P&C J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

brokers has stayed largely the same. Moderating P&C pricing and the

downward sloping growth curve for nominal GDP in most major economies

(including the US) are still headwinds for prospective growth and margin

expansion. In 2Q26 specifically, brokers with heavier property exposure (BRO

and RYAN) could experience softer organic growth than peers since 2Q is a

seasonally high renewal quarter for property business. From a stock

perspective, price changes have been more volatile than what the fundamentals

would suggest, with large-cap brokers modestly down in 2Q26, small- and

mid-cap brokers up close to 20% over the same period (a partial reversal of their

significant drawdown in 1Q26), and the entire segment up mid-to-high single

digits since the end of 2Q26 because of the market rotation into financials.

• Some commercial brokerage stocks still attractive despite recent rally,