Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corp | Europe Full Speed on New Contracts

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Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corp | Europe Full Speed on New Contracts

UpdateMValuation Methodology and Risks

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co Distribution (ADNOCDIST.AD)

Our price target is a 50%/50% blend of EV/EBITDA and DCF. We apply a multiple of 13.5x on

2027e EBITDA, compared to the 5-year historical average of ~14x. Given the current growth

and cash flow outlook for ADNOC Distribution, we apply a target multiple in line with its

historical average. Our 10-year DCF assumes a WACC of 7.3% and a terminal growth rate of

2%.

Risks to Upside

n Increase in retail fuel margins in the UAE and/or in Saudi Arabia

n Faster rollout of convenience stores

n Higher than expected commercial volumes

Risks to Downside

n Lower than expected volume growth

n More challenging competitive landscape in the UAE ex-Abu Dhabi and in Saudi Arabia

n Weaker demand for lubricants and aviation fuel in Egypt

Dubai Taxi Company PJSC (DTC.DU)

Our price target is a 50%/50% blend of DCF and EV/EBITDA. DTC trades at a significant dis-

count to Salik and Parkin, but more closely to similarly capital-intensive assets in Dubai with

less competitive, higher-margin business models. We assign a 10.0x target 2027e multiple to

DTC, a premium to peers given DTC's higher relative growth prospects. Our 10-year DCF

assumes a WACC of 8.3% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%.

n Acceleration of expansion into other Emirates via Bolt partnership

n Introduction of dynamic pricing

n Testing of autonomous vehicles progressing faster than expected

n Greater supply of new plates to competitor franchises

n Modal shift to public transport

n Adverse consolidation of taxi franchise market

Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corp (EMPOWER.DU)

Our price target is a 50%/50% blend of EV/EBITDA and DCF. We apply a multiple of 13.5x to