JPM | THE HOUSE VIEW (& key charts...): APAC Market Thematics - Specialist Sales Commentary Thematics · Macro · Strategy

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | THE HOUSE VIEW (& key charts...): APAC Market Thematics - Specialist Sales Commentary Thematics · Macro · Strategy

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

11 July 2026

JPM | THE HOUSE VIEW (& key charts...)

Matthew See

+852 2800 8889

matthew.see@jpmorgan.com

JPM’s Economists & Strategists share their views on the outlook ahead. 5x which caught my eye this week are below:

1. Global Macro (Bruce Kasman): Consumer resilience… brushing off the headwinds (link)

2. Asia Macro (Sajjid Chinoy): Domestic vs external… diverging trends in Japan vs China (link)

3. Global FX Strategy (Meera Chandan): Stay long USD and beta FX… and short the JPY (link)

4. Global EQ Strategy (Mislav Matejka): Into 2Q earnings… stay bullish on strong growth (link)

5. Global Positioning (John Schlegel): Momentum pullback… isn’t necessarily complete yet (link)

#1 - GLOBAL MACRO | Consumer resilience… brushing off the headwinds (B. Kasman)

• Consumer resilience - No signs of a slowdown. Despite a spike in global consumer price inflation to 6% annualised in the

3m through May, there’s been little sign of a softening in conusmption into mid-year. Our economists had expected a roughly

1ppt downshift in global consumption growth ex-China (from +2.4% in 1Q26)… but consumers have impressed with their

spending resilience (outpacing consumer confidence readings), leading us to lift our 2Q26 consumption forecast to 2%.

• Headwinds to tailwinds - Energy and jobs. US tax cuts helped consumers initially weather the storm... and other macro

trends are now also improving. Of note, recent headwinds from rising oil/gas prices and a weak labour market are both

inflecting into 2H tailwinds. Global economic growth is also supported by World Cup hospitality spend. It’s also not just in