Credit Bureaus and FICO—2Q Preview: Lowering Estimates on Mortgage Headwinds

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Credit Bureaus and FICO—2Q Preview: Lowering Estimates on Mortgage Headwinds

Global | Information Services EquityJulyResearch12, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Credit Bureaus and FICO—2Q Preview: Lowering

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETEstimates on Mortgage Headwinds

EFX BUY $200.00

We trim our estimates for EFX, EXPN, TRU, and FICO, with weaker mortgage FICO BUY $1,750.00

volumes one of the drivers. For FICO, we believe investors will likely look through TRU BUY $90.00

results as the primary focus remains the regulatory environment and the VS4 EXPN LN BUY 3,600.00p

competitive threat. Into the print, we prefer TRU, as lending volumes remain

solid and there is lower exposure to mortgage. Longer-term, FICO remains our

top pick as we believe its moat and earnings power are underappreciated.

KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

2Q estimates moving lower due to weakness in mortgage volumes. Changes to our calendar TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

2Q revenues and adj EPS estimates were mixed. We have tweaked our estimates lower at EFX, FICO BUY $1,750.00 ($1,700.00)

FICO, and TRU due to weaker mortgage volumes. For 2Q revenues, we end up Street high on TRU

TRU BUY $90.00 ($88.00)

(+10.4% y/y on net revs), above consensus on FICO (Jefferies: +27.7%, Consensus: +26.0%), and

below consensus on EFX (+6.9% y/y on net revs). On EXPN, we are effectively in line (Jefferies: EXPN LN BUY 3,600.00p (4,600.00p)

+7.4% y/y; Consensus: +7.2% y/y). Versus mgmt guidance, on net revenues, we are within the guided

range at EFX and TRU. At EXPN, mortgage is not a material contributor to overall revenues. See

Exhibit 1 for additional details. Exhibit 1 - For calendar 2Q revenues, we are

Street high on TRU, above consensus on FICO,

2026 volumes relatively unchanged, mortgage lower.