Raising estimates & PT to $108 on better yield; Q2 App downloads up 45% Y/Y

研报英文原文证据摘录

Raising estimates & PT to $108 on better yield; Q2 App downloads up 45% Y/Y

of HNGE's Platform.

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

We're raising our PT from $72 to $108 on a combination of higher estimates and framework** = Based on consensus methodology

multiple (28x EV/EBITDA, up from 20x). Our new target multiple is in line with the §e == MorganConsensusStanleydataResearchis providedestimatesby Refinitiv Estimates

average multiple of the 1st quartile SMID software stocks, which has expanded by Quarterly EPS ($)

~5x turns in the last few months. For additional context, Hinge Health has superior 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

growth and margins—we estimate a 2-year revenue CAGR ending 2027 of 31% and Q1 0.02 - 0.45a 0.57 0.62

EBITDA margin of 31%, above 22% revenue growth and 20% margin for comps. Our Q2 0.27 0.47 0.49 0.60 0.66

Q3 0.32 0.54 0.57 0.68 0.74

target multiple is roughly half the rate of the 58% EBITDA CAGR we model through Q4 0.44 0.60 0.62 0.73 0.78

2027. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

Context on the sharp reversal in HNGE that presents a materially different

earnings setup relative to the last 2 quarters. Sentiment on the stock has done a

180 from January/February, when HNGE had been caught up on the “AI disruption”

trade that weighed heavily on HCIT and SaaS stocks. Since that time, 2026

estimates for Hinge Health’s revenue and EBIT have come up by 17% and 61%,

respectively, driving a powerful rebound in the stock ( Exhibit 1 ). Even after this

move, HNGE still trades at a discount to SMID software on a growth adjusted basis Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,