Micro Meets Macro: 2Q Earnings Preview

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Micro Meets Macro: 2Q Earnings Preview

Idea

July 13, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMUS Equity Strategy | North America Michael J Wilson

Equity Strategist

Micro Meets Macro: 2Q M.Wilson@morganstanley.comAndrew B Pauker +1 212 761-2532

Andrew.Pauker@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1330

Earnings Preview Michelle M. Weaver, CFA

Michelle.M.Weaver@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-5254

We expect the broadening to continue driven by earnings Diane Ding, Ph.D.

resiliency from the median stock. Our preferred cyclical trades— QuantitativeQian.Ding@morganstanley.comStrategist +1 212 761-6758

Discretionary and Transports—are showing relative strength in Nicholas Lentini, CFA

terms of earnings revisions breadth. Our systematic transcript EquityNick.Lentini@morganstanley.comStrategist +1 212 761-5863

analysis shows momentum building around AI adoption.

• Earnings Strength Continues to Facilitate the Broadening in

Leadership...In line with our views, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has

outperformed the cap-weighted index since mid-May, driven by improving

earnings across the index. The median S&P 1500 company is now delivering

double-digit EPS growth—the strongest since the post-COVID recovery.

While earnings revisions breadth is undergoing its typical July pause, our

preferred cyclical exposures, Discretionary and Transports, continue to show

relative strength. With our capex/sales factor consolidating, we're closely

watching the market's reaction to capex guidance and whether improving

pricing power continues to translate into stronger revenue growth,

particularly in consumer-facing industries.

• Key Takeaways from Our Micro Meets Macro Roundtable with Lead

Analysts...Discussion among our research teams reinforced AI as the