Europe Economic Weekly

研报英文原文证据摘录

Europe Economic Weekly

Global Markets Research

10 July 2026Europe Economic Weekly

Economics - EMEA/Euro Area/Europe

Research Analysts

The heat is on European Economics

George Buckley - NIplc

• Le Pen will stand for French president next year. Despite her popularity, the second george.buckley@nomura.com

round could prove tight. Final HICP data next week could affect our July forecast. +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc • Burnham is set to become UK PM in a week’s time, while leader of the right-wing andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

Reform Party Farage is to re-contest his seat as other parties boycott the event. +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

Josie Anderson - NIplc

Week in review josie.anderson@nomura.com

Marine Le Pen has said she will stand for French president after this week’s legal ruling. +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

While she continues to out-poll her rivals by a wide margin, face-to-face polling suggests

that the second round of the presidential election could be close, especially if she were

pitted against a centrist candidate. Elsewhere, country-level data published this week are

supportive of airfares pulling down on euro area inflation; Friday’s final June print will

provide more detail and could thereby influence our July forecast.

Politics has also been in focus in the UK this week. Andy Burnham has now secured

enough MPs to make it an almost mathematical certainty he will be Labour leader and PM

in a week’s time. Meanwhile, Reform leader Nigel Farage has taken a gamble on re-

standing for his constituency seat, which mainstream parties have said they will boycott.

Data preview

It is particularly quiet on the data front in the coming week in Europe, with euro area

industrial production likely to rise modestly and UK GDP set to rebound after April’s fall.