Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

Update

July 13, 2026 02:29 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MSino Biopharmaceutical | Asia Pacific Alexis Yan, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Alexis.Yan@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7953

What’s Changed

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) From To

Bear Case HK$4.80 HK$4.50

Updated Components

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK, 1177 HK)

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios China Healthcare | China

Stock Rating Overweight

Risk Reward for Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) has been IndustryPrice targetView AttractiveHK$7.80

updated Shr price, close (Jul 10, 2026) HK$5.19

52-Week Range HK$9.12-4.19

Reason for change Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (Rmb)** 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.28

Model adjustments ahead of 1H26 results. We keep innovative drug forecasts largely Prior EPS (Rmb)** - 0.22 0.24 0.27

unchanged, while lowering generic+biosimilar sales forecasts amid the latest sales Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

rep policies and upcoming VBP. We also raise licensing income to reflect the upfront ** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

payments of recent Sanofi and GSK deals in 2026, and potential milestones & new

BD income in outer years. We also assume a lower minority interest ratio from 2027

as 5% of CTTQ interest will be transferred to the listco from late 2026. Lastly, we

assume no dividend income from SinoVac LS from 2026 (~Rmb1.5bn in 2025).

Accordingly, our ex-BD EPS forecasts are trimmed by 2-3% in 2026-28 (mainly due

to the lower generic sales forecasts) while our underlying EPS forecasts (incl. BD

income) are raised by 13.6%, 5.5% and 3.9% for the next 3 years.

DCF-based base case value and PT are unchanged. We lower our bear case value by