T-Mobile US Inc.: Maintain Postpaid Account Adds at 275k; Trim Service Revenue to $19.00b, but EBITDA of $9.42b Unchanged

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T-Mobile US Inc.: Maintain Postpaid Account Adds at 275k; Trim Service Revenue to $19.00b, but EBITDA of $9.42b Unchanged

1.04m, at the high end of the

updated guidance range of 950–1,050k. While T-Mobile no longer reports Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

postpaid phone metrics, we forecast 2Q26 postpaid phone net adds of 675k. Adj. EPS ($)

• Maintain FWA and T-Fiber net adds. While Starlink Broadband continues Q1 2025A2.58 2026E2.27A 2027E2.94

to gain share in the U.S. and cable operators ramp up their retention efforts, we Q2 2.84 2.57 3.40

believe T-Mobile's FWA momentum should persist, given expanded eligibility, Q3 2.41 2.94 3.64

continued share gains from cable, and a long runway of SMB growth. Q4 1.88 2.67 3.29

FY 9.72 10.44 13.27

Accordingly, we maintain our 2Q 5G BB net adds estimate of 450k. Note that

in early June 2026, T-Mobile rolled out a $5 base-plan increase for new FWA Style Exposure

subs across each of its three 5G Home Internet tiers. Our T-Fiber estimate of

70k is also unchanged, reflecting sequential growth as fiber passings expand.

• Lower 2Q total service revenue to $19.00b on softer prepaid and

wholesale, partly offset by higher postpaid. We lower our 2Q total service

revenue estimate to $19.00b (vs. guidance of ~$19b) on lower prepaid and

wholesale revenue. Our reduced prepaid ($2.46b) and wholesale ($637m)

estimates align with CFO Peter Osvaldik’s recent conference commentary. We

interpret his remarks as pointing to a similar sequential dollar decline in each,

consistent with the Q4-to-Q1 trend; lower prepaid estimates are attributable to

“CLV accretive” prepaid-to-postpaid migrations, while wholesale remains

pressured by “TracFone and DISH continuing to roll off.” Partly offsetting this,