K+S 2026 Preview - Raising Numbers, Not Conviction

研报英文原文证据摘录

K+S 2026 Preview - Raising Numbers, Not Conviction

EUROPE | Chemicals

K+S EquityJulyResearch11, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEK+S 2Q26 Preview - Raising Numbers, Not

RATING UNDERPERFORMConviction

PRICE €13.18^

We raise EBITDA estimates by c.5% on higher potash price assumptions

and the Qemetica salt acquisition, but lower our PT to €10.5 (from MTM PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €10.50 (€11.50) | -20%

changes to our SOTP peer multiples) and retain our UNPF rating. K+S 52W HIGH-LOW €18.69 - €10.35

reports Q2 on 12 August; we forecast EBITDA of €146m, 4% above VA FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 89.0% | 12.67

consensus (€141m). While potash remains the most resilient fertiliser MARKET CAP €2.4B | $2.7B

market, challenging farm economics and meaningful medium-term supply TICKER SDF GR ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

additions keep us cautious. noted.

Operationally, potash prices have proven more resilient than other fertiliser nutrients and we FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

expect them to remain broadly stable, supported by a relatively balanced near-term supply/ 2026 2027 2026 2027

demand backdrop despite some weaker buying signals. Consequently, we raise EBITDA REV +2% +3% +2% +6%

estimates by c.5% on average, reflecting both higher potash price assumptions and the

EPS +74% +12% +41% -9%

inclusion of Qemetica's earnings contribution from 2027. For Q2, we forecast EBITDA of

€146m, 4% above VA consensus (€141m), while our FY EBITDA estimate of €718m sits at the

2026 (€) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

top end of management's €630-730m guidance range.

EPS -- -- -- -- 1.62

Longer term, our view remains unchanged. While potash pricing has been more resilient PREV 0.93

than expected, we remain cautious on the medium-term outlook. Significant global capacity