USDA World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE): US 2026/27 Corn & Soybean Ending Stocks Below Consensus; Wheat Above

研报英文原文证据摘录

USDA World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE): US 2026/27 Corn & Soybean Ending Stocks Below Consensus; Wheat Above

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

10 July 2026

USDA World Ag Supply & Demand

Estimates (WASDE)

US 2026/27 Corn & Soybean Ending Stocks Below

Consensus; Wheat Above

Today, the USDA updated its global supply and demand estimates for 2026/27 and Machinery, Engineering &

2025/26. In the US, 2026/27 ending stocks are estimated at 1.790B bu of corn (vs. Construction

consensus 1.899B bu and 2.020B bu in 2025/26), 310MM bu of soybeans (vs. Tami Zakaria, CFA AC

consensus 332MM bu and 330MM bu in 2025/26), and 722MM bu of wheat (vs. (1-212) 622-9888

consensus 718MM bu and 920MM bu in 2025/26). US 2026/27 stocks-to-use tami.zakaria@jpmchase.com

(STU) are projected at 11.0% for corn (vs. 12.1% implied following the June Raquel Betesh

Acreage report, prior WASDE 12.1% and 12.2% in 2025/26), 6.8% for soybeans (1-212) 622-1313

(vs. 7.7% implied following the June Acreage report, prior WASDE 6.9% and raquel.betesh@jpmchase.com

7.7% in 2025/26), and 38.6% for wheat (vs. 37.6% implied following the June Alec R McGuire

(1-212) 622-2432

Acreage report, prior WASDE 39.7% and 45.0% in 2025/26). We view today’s alec.mcguire@jpmorgan.com

report as largely positive for US farmers to the extent lower new crop corn and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

soybean ending stocks are supportive of crop prices, although new crop wheat

ending stocks came in above expectations.

• US new crop 2026/27: corn and soybean ending stocks below consensus;

wheat above. 2026/27 US corn supply is estimated at 18.045B bu (vs. 18.171B

bu implied following the June Acreage report, and prior WASDE 18.165B bu)

on a yield of 183.0bu/acre (unchanged vs. prior WASDE) and 87.4MM