Macro Trade Recommendations

研报英文原文证据摘录

Macro Trade Recommendations

Octavia Popescu AC (44-20) 3493-5654 Patrick R Locke (1-212) 834-4254 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A Noctavia.popescu@jpmorgan.com patrick.r.locke@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 10 July 2026

James Nelligan (44-20) 3493-6829 Kunj J Padh (1-212) 834-5108

james.nelligan@jpmorgan.com kunj.padh@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Macro Trade ZAR, HUF; long GBP versus CHF, SEK and EUR on further

political risk reduction layered with carry; long AUD/SEK in

Recommendations cash and long NOK/SEK in options; long EUR/SEK as a risk

hedge; and short CAD/MXN as a G10-funded EM carry

• Our portfolio is a barbell of carry and dollar longs; trade. The book is positioned for higher US yields and would

conviction has tilted towards the carry leg for now on therefore benefit from a hot inflation print.

better global data and a US payrolls report that gave

the dollar no fresh impetus — if US data doesn't hand We navigate geopolitical headlines and oil moves through

the Fed an imminent signal, carry is the place to be. carry-positive, terms-of-trade-neutral expressions and

• The Fed minutes confirmed a hawkish stance, but one low-yielding risk hedges. Our CHF-funded carry basket (vs

AUD, USD, ZAR, HUF) is partly hedged to terms of trade as that now needs the data to corroborate it; for now our

it also includes the dollar and AUD (which is high beta but a bias is bullish beta, bullish dollars...

net exporter of energy). Another potential candidate to bal-

• … we thus stay long dollars vs DM low yielders (EUR, ance exporters/importers in the basket further would be NOK,

SEK, NZD, CAD and CHF); we downplay bottom-up where our view has been that once oil settles down, carry and