Risk Reward Update: Forgent Power Solutions | North America

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update: Forgent Power Solutions | North America

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Forgent Power Solutions (FPS.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Organic Growth (%) 56.0 84.5 50.0 40.1

Operating Margin (%) 22.5 22.9 23.9 24.9

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

A sizable and visible backlog underpinning near- RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Jun 2026e

term revenue growth Faster backlog conversion from smoother 318 Operating leverage from scale efficiencies and capacity ramp EBITDA

favorable mix shift driving margin expansion Stronger orders and pricing from differentiated ($, mm) 315 320

Differentiated custom capabilities supporting custom solutions 318

pricing power and competitive positioning Delayed industry capacity ramp sustaining

competitive advantage Sales / 1,390

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE Revenue 1,371 1,393

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Inability to sustain order trends as industry ($, mm) 1,388 0-10% China and India capacity ramps

0-10% Europe ex UK Margin pressure if price/cost weakens amid

0-10% Japan inflation/tariff related cost pressures Net income 183

0-10% Latin America Capacity ramp delays/integration missteps ($, mm) 174 209

0-10% Mainland China 198

0-10% UK

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 80-90% North America

EPSSource: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 93.3% 0.60 0.74

($)

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x 0.69

HF Sector Net Exposure 8.8%

MS ALPHA MODELS Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

4/5 24 Month 1/5 3 Month exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends.