Atomic Backstop: The Critical Path Runs Through Idaho

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Atomic Backstop: The Critical Path Runs Through Idaho

USA | Power & Utilities EquityJulyResearch10, 2026

Atomic Backstop: The Critical Path Runs Multiple independent third party sources

point toward large new nuclear in theThrough Idaho $15,000/kW and $150+/MWh range.

We recently visited the DOE's Idaho National Lab (INL) to get the latest on- Exhibit 1 - Capital Costs: 2025 $/kW First

ground updates of the nuclear space. We see the DOE and US Government as Installation$30,000

Base Construction Costenablers of the new technologies but still very early days. INL and peer labs $25,000 Overnight Capital Cost

offer a supporting infrastructure in form of reactor/fuel testing and funding. $20,000

Players most engaged with the federal bodies are best positioned to reach $15,000

commercialization, but HALEU availability remains an unanswered pain point. $10,000

$5,000

LLWR Greenfield LLWR Brownfield SMR Greenfield SMR Brownfield

Can the DOE Fix The Chicken-And-Egg Problem? The new nuclear industry is in a limbo due to . Source: New York Public Service Commission: Advanced

a circular issue: hyperscalers need proof of technology before making firm commitments, and Nuclear Policy Options Paper

Exhibit 2 - Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA):new nuclear is uneconomic in the US without hyperscalers paying a material premium. The data Nuclear Overnight Capital Cost 2024 and 2026

center opportunity has driven over 100 new nuclear entrants, but we expect only a few winners. 20,000

18,000A government backstop is desired for commercialization and we still we think this is still quite Overnight Capital Cost (2024 $/kW) Overnight Capital Cost (2026 $/kW) 16,000

challenging but derisking tech is helpful. Hyperscalers have shown a willingness and preference for 14,000

newer technologies.