Retail Therapy: EU Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary Retail • Luxury • Staples • Leisure • Airlines

研报英文原文证据摘录

Retail Therapy: EU Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary Retail • Luxury • Staples • Leisure • Airlines

Pos Cat Watch into Q2 seeing potential for earnings upgrades. He now sits DD% ahead of cons

for FY26 and FY27. His positive view into the quarter is based on a dynamic amongst the EU flag carriers where spot/forward jet

fuel prices have come down, however pricing remains strong, which may enable a higher near-term % fuel pass-through. Within

that, AF has the best opportunity to beat cons. LT fundamental are also aligning, while the top down House view from JPM

Strategist is in favor of Airlines. See more details here. This is in no way an obvious long for investors based in my conversations

given lower and volatile margins added to negative FCF at this point. If Harry is right, both are due to improve, which makes AF

a very interesting transformation story and buy opportunity. Let me know if you want to discuss the name with Harry.

#3: EU CHOCOLATES.The “jist”? Stay short. An amazing call from Ed YTD (here) and the UW on EU Chocolate names

seem to be finding further legs. Barry Callebaut shares opened up yday but quickly turned red and ended the day -4% after the Q3

trading update. Shares are down another -3% today as of writing. Ed flagged we saw better ST volumes, but end-markets remain

challenging. The conf call sought to reassure on volumes improvement being underpinned by improved service levels and growth

in adjacent end market categories beyond confectionery (noting ice cream in particular) and beyond restocking tailwind in cocoa

and to some degree in chocolate, but he continues to think scrutiny should remain on the underlying volume run-rate amidst still

weak end-market demand.