Greater China

研报英文原文证据摘录

Greater China

Feng Zhu (852) 2800 1745 Jiayi Li (852) 2800-5229 Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A Nfeng.zhu@jpmorgan.com jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch 10 July 2026

Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 Tongfang Yuan (852) 2800-0085

tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com

Greater China ing sectors, the more persistent downside risk is domestic. If

next week’s activity data show weak retail sales, property,

• China: CPI softens, PPI reflation loses momentum investment or services momentum, pricing power could soft-

en further and deflation concerns could re-emerge despite the

• More measures to boost CNH offshore liquidity positive PPI headline. Weak absorption, narrow price support

• Taiwan: Upbeat June CPI inflation tests CBC patience and limited pass-through remain key for 3Q inflation pros-

• Exports slip, imports rise, AI momentum holds pects.

• Next week: China credit, trade, activity and 2Q GDP;

Hong Kong labor Measures to support CNH liquidity; 2H CNY

drivers

The latest CPI/PPI and FX data point to stabilization, not

Recent policy developments suggest that Beijing is not pursu-reflation: CPI/core CPI softened to 1.0%oya and PPI momen-

ing a crackdown on outbound capital flows, but rather build-tum faded despite a 4.1%oya headline, suggesting narrow

ing a more comprehensive framework to manage cross-borderupstream price support and weak domestic absorption. Mean-

flows while continuing to support RMB internationalization.while, stable FX reserves and CNY-supportive measures indi-

Authorities have introduced measures to strengthen offshorecate no acute outflow pressure. Next week’s activity/GDP

CNH liquidity – including a new offshore central bank repodata are likely to show managed stabilization around the