Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

n Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, Risk Reward Themes

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 9

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either Self-help: Positive

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE $135.00 BASE CASE $84.00 BEAR CASE $53.00

~19x Bull Case blended '27/'28 EPS of $7.23 ~14x Base Case blended '27/'28 EPS of ~10x Bear Case blended '27/'28 EPS of

$6.26 $5.27

Model recovery to MSD organic growth in

2027 on improved consumer health and Model flat/LSD growth in '26-'27, below Model a cont'd LSD decline in 2026 and flat

lower rates driving a pickup in existing home MSD target levels on still soft consumers. growth in 2027 due to continued pressure

sales. We model ~34% GM in 2026 and However, following 2.5yrs of organic on consumer spend & low existing home

~35% in 2027 on restructuring actions and declines and cleared channel inventories, the sales. This would mark 4 consecutive years

driving OM to ~11~12% in 2026-2027. Value rate of change screens positive w/ 2025 of flat to down organic growth following

shares at ~19x EPS, a HSD discount to the flattish yoy. We model ~32% GM and ~10% outsized post-Covid demand. Model GM

S&P500, closer to historical levels as OM in 2026. Value at ~14x blended EPS, topping out at ~32.5% in 2026, below 35%+

company returns to ~35% gross margins. below the Tools peer group to reflect softer company target and keeping OM in the

growth at SWK and turnaround risk. This 10.x% range. Value shares at ~10x NTM EPS,