Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

JUL '26 JUL '27

Secular Growth: Negative

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target Self-help: Positive

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 9

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $220.00 BASE CASE $165.00 BEAR CASE $125.00

~23x blended '27/'28 EPS, net of liabilities ~20x blended '27/'28 EPS, net of liabilities ~18x blended '27/'28 EPS, net of liabilities

+SOLV +SOLV +SOLV

Model ~4% organic through 2027 on We model LSD organic growth through We model flat/LSD organic growth in '26/'27,

improved consumer spend and channels 2027 on pressured consumer goods spend. as consumer pressure drives soft end

flipping destock to restock. We model sharp Anticipate strong OM expansion through '26 market demand and cont'd channel destock.

OM expansion to ~26.5% by 2027 (vs 23.4% on self-help, partially offset by tariffs. Value Model modest OM expansion through '27 on

in 2025) behind a combination of self-help shares at ~20.0x blended '27/'28 EPS, self-help, partially offset by tariffs. Value at

and volume leverage. Value shares at ~23.0x debiting out the net impact of PV of after- ~18x blended '27/'28 EPS and debit out the

blended '27/'28 EPS and debit out the net tax litigation liabilities (MSe) + SOLV net impact of PV of after-tax litigation

impact of PV of after-tax litigation liabilities ownership position.