Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 9

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $100.00 BASE CASE $80.00 BEAR CASE $55.00

~24x our blended '27/'28 Bull Case EPS of ~21x our blended '27/'28 Base Case EPS of ~16x our blended '27/'28 Bear Case EPS of

$4.17 $3.84 $3.44

Model LSD organic in '26 before ramp to Forecast a return to ~LSD/~MSD organic Forecast a LSD decline/flat organic in

MSD% organic in '27/'28 on clearing channel growth in 2026/27 (vs -1% in '25 ) with IR on 2026/27 on sluggish short-cycle recovery,

destock and leverage to Mfg Capex + energy the right side of anticipated NTM short-cycle particularly in EU + China where IR is over-

efficiency value add. Short-cycle indicators bifurcation given leverage to Mfg Capex + exposed. Bear case assumes cont'd project

are turning positive (MQLs +LDD%) and Bull energy efficiency value add. Leading delays for long cycle business with slow

Case assumes a pickup in long-cycle indicators are turning positive (MQLs conversion weighing on organic growth.

conversion on better project momentum in +LDD%) but outsized China + EU exposure Model cont'd margin expansion despite the

the out years. Model high 30% incrementals, screens for cont'd headwinds + risk. Model sluggish topline on M&A integration +

above target.