Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Dover Corp (DOV.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Organic Growth (%) 1.6 5.3 3.8 3.9 23 Jul 2026 Q2 2026 Dover Corp Earnings Release

Operating Margin (%) 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.3 23 Jul 2026 Q2 2026 Dover Corp Earnings Call

21 Oct 2026 -

Q3 2026 Dover Corp Earnings Release

26 Oct 2026

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

All about growth: after years of reshaping RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

portfolio and multi-year headwinds in company- Better than feared macro conditions drive

specific end markets, subsiding headwinds make organic growth higher than expected Sales / 8,662

way for a return to MSD in 2025. Add'l benefit Margin upside from product mix, productivity Revenue 8,538 8,732

to come from positive mix from growth in high investments, and restructuring ($, mm) 8,658

margin businesses. Accretive M&A driving estimate revisions and

multiple re-rating.

2,040

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 1,930 2,281

($, mm)

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Slower than expected growth in high-margin 2,063 0-10% China and India end-markets (CO2, thermal connectors),

0-10% India limiting growth and margin uplift.

0-10% Japan Broader industrial slowdown. Net income 1,443

0-10% Latin America 1,146 1,466 ($, mm)

0-10% MEA 1,386

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 0-10% Mainland China

0-10% UK Inst. Owners, % Active 52.1% 10.66

10-20% Europe ex UK EPS

60-70% North America HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x ($) 10.50 10.85

10.66

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate HF Sector Net Exposure 8.8%

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

exposures held with MSPB.