Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Allegion Public Limited Company (ALLE.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

22 Jul 2026 - 03

Americas organic growth (%) 5.2 5.1 4.0 4.0 Q2 2026 Allegion PLC Earnings Release

Aug 2026

21 Oct 2026 -

Total Organic growth (%) 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 Q3 2026 Allegion PLC Earnings Release

26 Oct 2026

Total Operating Margins (%) 23.2 23.3 23.6 24.3

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Muted volume growth due to end-market RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

softness (Multi-Family + Office and Commercial) Increased construction activity in end markets

limits ability to expand margins through 2026. Accelerated adoption of electronics Sales / 4,401

Revenue 4,327 4,469

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE ($, mm) 4,383 Persistently high interest rates puts continued

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland pressure on construction activity 0-10%

China and India 1,097

0-10% Europe ex UK EBITDA

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING ($, mm) 1,077 1,169 0-10% India 1,099

0-10% Japan Inst. Owners, % Active 53.4%

0-10% Latin America

0-10% MEA HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x 761 Net income

0-10% Mainland China HF Sector Net Exposure 8.8% ($, mm) 699 766

0-10% UK 751

70-80% North America Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market 8.78 EPS

View explanation of regional hierarchies here trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short 8.69 8.95

($)

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a 8.78

MS ALPHA MODELS particular(Across allsector:sectors:LongLongExposureExposure- Short– ShortExposure)Exposure)./

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates