AZN (0): Why is the stock still a phoenix?

研报英文原文证据摘录

AZN (0): Why is the stock still a phoenix?

Justin Smith +44 20 7762 5899 justin.smith@bernsteinsg.com 10 July 2026

DETAILS

WHY IS ASTRAZENECA STILL OUR TOP PICK?

AstraZeneca remains our top pick in EU biopharma for four reasons:

1/ PREMIUM GROWTH FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD

We still project AstraZeneca to deliver top line growth which is sustainably above the EU pharma sector average until 2032

(Exhibit 1). This is because we believe that the company is still the leader in four growing, high barrier segments (ie oncology,

cardiovascular -renal-metabolic, respiratory and rare diseases).

EXHIBIT 1: AZN sales growth EXHIBIT 2: AZN: Composition of Total Revenues ($bn)

10%

12% 100.0

10% 90.0 5%

8% 80.0

70.0

6% 0%

60.0 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e

4%

50.0 Total revenues Produ 2%

40.0

0%

30.0

-2% 20.0

-4% 10.0

-6% 0.0

2024 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e 2032e 2033e

AZN (Bern) Consensus Product sales Alliance Revenues

EU Pharma (Bern) Collaboration Revenues

‘AZN’ and ‘Sector’ lines are both based on Bernstein estimates. ‘Consensus’ Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis and revenues

line is Bloomberg estimates for AZN. ‘Sector’ is weighted average of AZN,

BAYN, GSK, IPN, MRK GY, NOVN, NOVOB, ROG, SAN and UCB. AZN sales

are ‘Total Revenues’ = ‘Product Sales + Alliance Revenues’ + Collaboration

Revenues’. Alliance Revenues is the line where the economics of the Daiichi

Sankyo oncology partnership are booked

Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis and estimates

2/ DEEPEST CATALYST CALENDAR

AstraZeneca’s Total Revenues equals Product Sales (ie income generated from AZN’s ‘direct’ marketing efforts) plus Alliance

Revenues plus Collaboration Revenues (milestone income) - Exhibit 2. Hence, in our view Product Sales best reflects AZN’s

‘organic’ growth prospects.