Viking: Separating the sails from the wind - LfL and mix both blowing fair

研报英文原文证据摘录

Viking: Separating the sails from the wind - LfL and mix both blowing fair

10 July 2026

Richard J. Clarke, FCA

+44 20 7676 6850

Global Hotels & Leisure richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com

Viking Holdings Niall Mitchelson

+44 20 7676 7144

Rating niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Lasith Siriwardana

Price Target +44 20 7550 2191

lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com

VIK 120.00 USD

Viking: Separating the sails from the wind - LfL and mix both

blowing fair

At 26Q1 Viking gave us a first look at their 2027 bookings, already 26% and 48% sold

Close Date 8 Jul 2026

in river and ocean respectively, and most importantly at 11% higher prices (despite mid-

VIK Close Price (USD) 97.97

teens capacity growth). However, investor excitement was tempered by a warning that (1)

Price Target (USD) 120.00

higher priced sailings being sold earlier in the year were booked capacity pricing, FY prices

Upside/(Downside) 22%

are likely to be lower (2) air pricing is included in headline price increases. Naturally this

52-Week Range 105.76/55.09

raises the question - what is the underlying LfL pricing? We analyzed every listed price on

SPX 7,543.64

Viking’s website for each room category and sailing across both their river and ocean capacity

FYE Dec

(~90,000 data points - let us know if you would like the data) to disentangle the mix impact,

Div Yield NA

and find LfL pricing running at ~9.5% in ocean and ~6.5% in river. If LfL pricing holds we

Market Cap (USD) (M) 45,604

would expect 9.5% and 7.8% yield growth in ocean and river respectively - well ahead of the

EV (USD) (M) 47,386

~6% in consensus. We model some slowdown in LfL pricing but remain ~150bps ahead on

yields. Q2 reporting is the next catalyst, and we expect it to show pricing has held up well. Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M