Brazil Oil & Gas: Export Tax Extension: Negative Headline, Limited Impact - Reiterate OW on PBR and PRIO

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Brazil Oil & Gas: Export Tax Extension: Negative Headline, Limited Impact - Reiterate OW on PBR and PRIO

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

10 July 2026

Brazil Oil & Gas

Export Tax Extension: Negative Headline, Limited

Impact - Reiterate OW on PBR and PRIO

In an unexpected move, the Brazilian government extended the 12% crude oil Latam Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals

ACexport tax established under MP 1,340 for 60 days - with the possibility of an Milene Clifford Carvalho

additional 30-day extension - citing renewed volatility in global oil markets and the (55-11) 4950-3475

need to safeguard domestic fuel supply. The decision runs counter to recent signals milene.carvalho@jpmorgan.com

that the measure was approaching its end, and it was implemented through a Henrique Cunha, CFA

mechanism that raises some procedural questions, extending the tax beyond the (55 11) 4950 3623

framework that originally enabled it, which effectively lapses today. From a sector henrique.r.cunha@jpmorgan.com

perspective, the extension is negative for crude producers in the near term, Rodolfo Angele, CFA

particularly PRIO and Petrobras, though we estimate a relatively limited impact on (55-11) 4950-3888

rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.com

valuation (-1.1% for PRIO and -0.7% for Petrobras, assuming a full-quarter effect).

Mirella SampaioImportantly, we continue to view both names constructively, underpinned by

(55-11) 4950-3289

strong production growth outlooks and attractive cash generation. mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

• Elevated oil volatility prompts export tax extension. Only weeks after

authorities signaled that the export tax, along with other fuel support measures,

could be gradually phased out (Brazil Fuel Distribution: Gradual exit from fuel