Brazilian Retailers: 2Q26 Preview: Mixed Views, The Game Continues

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Brazilian Retailers: 2Q26 Preview: Mixed Views, The Game Continues

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

Brazilian Retailers Equities

Americas2Q26 Preview: Mixed Views, The Game

Continues Consumer, Cyclical

Vinicius Strano, CFA

Analyst

vinicius.strano@ubs.com

2Q26 Preview: Retailing and Consumer Goods +55-11-2767 6688

We see mixed trends across our coverage, but the overall consumption backdrop Isabella Lamas

remains relatively resilient, particularly considering that consumer leverage and Analyst

debt-service ratios are still near all-time highs. The world cup also brings mixed isabella.lamas@ubs.com

effects across our coverage, likely driving shifts in consumer share of wallet and +55-11-2767 6836

constraining store traffic. Within our coverage, SMFT remains our top pick as we Lucca Biasi

expect 2Q to drive upside to consensus, while its long-term thesis remains solid, Associate Analyst

with TotalPass underappreciated contribution more than offsetting competition lucca.biasi@ubs.com

among gyms (See TotalPass Scale and Monetization Support a Favorable 2Q26 Setup +55-11-2767 6173

and Upside Risk to Consensus). We like SBFG for the 2Q mainly due demand for Pedro Perone

Brazil jerseys and discounted valuation (4.5x/4.2x reported 2026/27 PE). On Associate Analyst

valuation, we also like CEAB (6.1x/5.7x 2026/27 PE), although apparel SSS may pedro.perone@ubs.com

decelerate slightly due to the world cup. We would watch RADL closely, as we +55-11-2767 6007

believe it has a more attractive risk/reward now. While GLP-1 ticket erosion and

tougher comps will likely drive SSS deceleration in 2Q, we believe in much stronger

volumes for 2H26-2027, on greater supply and more affordable prices, which should

preserve gross profit (See Digging GLP-1 Economics; Unit Profitability Down,