Global Gas EU storage half empty amid rising supply risks: Fragile ceasefire lifts gas prices; Qatar pauses rapid production ramp-up

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Global Gas EU storage half empty amid rising supply risks: Fragile ceasefire lifts gas prices; Qatar pauses rapid production ramp-up

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GlobalEU storage half empty amid rising supply risks

Energy

Nayoung Kim

Fragile ceasefire lifts gas prices; Qatar pauses rapid production ramp-up Analyst

Risks around the Strait of Hormuz are rising again. Following reports that Iran attacked nayoung.kim@ubs.com

several vessels, including an LNG carrier, the US launched retaliatory strikes aimed at +44-20-7568 4010

degrading Iran’s ability to target shipping (link). Continued exchanges have undermined Henri Patricot, CFA

the recovery in flows, while Qatar has reportedly paused plans to rapidly ramp up LNG Analyst

production amid ongoing attacks (link). Gas prices have rallied, with TTF approaching henri.patricot@ubs.com

€50/MWh (or $16.5/mmbtu), in line with our 3Q26 forecast, supported by Europe’s +33-14-888 3033

heatwave, stronger power demand and nuclear output cuts. Asian JKM also moved Joshua Stone

higher, though more modestly to $16.5/MMBtu and leaving only a narrow spread Analyst

between the two markets. Spot procurement from Southeast Asia continues, but weak joshua.stone@ubs.com

Northeast Asian demand is capping upside. Hormuz-related headlines should remain a +44-20-7901 5588

key near-term driver, while fundamentals still point to a tightening market amid Qatar Josh Silverstein

delay risk and relatively low European storage. Analyst

josh.silverstein@ubs.com

LNG cargo trackers: Asia LNG in flows edged higher despite China pullback +1-212-713 3513

Asian LNG tanker arrivals rose 6% w/w but remained 5% below last year’s levels (Figure Ellinor Cederstroem Palliotto