Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

rrent Stock Price Price Target Self-help: Positive

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 9

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $1,580.00 BASE CASE $1,380.00 BEAR CASE $970.00

~28x Blended 2027/2028 NTM EPS of ~26x Blended 2027/2028 NTM EPS of ~24x Blended 2027/2028 NTM EPS of

$56.35 $52.24 $39.54

Based on ~28x NTM EPS of $56.35. The Based on ~26x NTM EPS of $52.24. The Based on ~24x NTM EPS of $39.54. The

multiple represents a ~30% S&P500 multiple represents a high teens premium to multiple represents ~10% premium to

premium and a ~20% discount to closest S&P500 and a ~30% discount to closest S&P500 and a ~40% discount to its closest

peer FAST. We model HSD organic for GWW peer FAST. We model ~10% organic growth peer FAST. We model just ~6-7% organic

in 2027-2028, supported by LSD market for the High-Touch business in 2026 and growth for GWW in 2026-28, underpinned

growth and MSD+ company outgrowth, MSD in 2027-2028, and mid-teens organic by a flatish US MRO market (IP + PPI) and

matching the levels observed over the last growth for Endless Assortment through just LSD company outgrowth. We model

2-3yrs. We model Endless Assortment 2028. We expect gross margin to expand y/y 150+bps of operating margin contraction in

getting back to high-teens organic. We and stabilize in 2027 and beyond.