US Life: 2Q26 Preview - Shifting to Offense; U/G JXN to Buy & D/G CNO to Hold

研报英文原文证据摘录

US Life: 2Q26 Preview - Shifting to Offense; U/G JXN to Buy & D/G CNO to Hold

+3% and most below for BHF at (5)%.

Trading places - U/G JXN to Buy and D/G CNO to Hold: Both changes are consistent with

our "shifting to offense" thesis for 2H:26. At JXN, we expect strong near-term annuity sales and

could see upside to our buyback forecast. While we still feel the use of Brooke Re lowers RBC

transparency, the $0.5B of capital from TPG reduces concerns related to its capitalization. Our CNO

downgrade is largely on valuation post its YTD run, likely aided by greater investor conviction in ROE

improvement / positive sentiment on underwriters, given limited private credit concerns.

Most constructive on LNC: LNC remains our Franchise Pick. We feel LNC's valuation reflects more

of a focus on where it has been and not enough on where it is going (see HERE). Given its recent

$0.5B hybrid issuance and 1Q:26 $0.8B of net holdco cash (vs a ~$0.4B target), LNC should have

~$0.9B of pro forma excess holdco cash, suggesting it has sufficient resources to call its preferred

in 2027/28 and opening the door to positive buyback commentary on its 2Q:26 call. We feel LNC

could announce a $0.2-0.3B authorization for 2026 or a larger, multi-year program.

Most concerned with VOYA: Post its recent run (likely on activism / M&A speculation), to us, VOYA's

risk / reward is poor. On its 2Q:26 earnings call, we feel VOYA will need to walk a fine line between

not shutting the door on M&A potential while keeping the discussion focused on its current strategy.

If investors get the sense that VOYA is not open to an acquisition, the stock could see downside.

Further, we feel at its current price, a Stop Loss sale is unlikely to drive material upside. We feel