Siam Cement: Strong Q226E to likely support sentiment

研报英文原文证据摘录

Siam Cement: Strong Q226E to likely support sentiment

k procurement UBS Cons.

management during a volatile market environment. CBM earnings are likely to soften 12/25E 1.27 11.73

QoQ due to seasonal factors, although infrastructure spending, continued cost 12/26E 5.27 9.42

discipline and restructuring benefits should remain supportive. 12/27E 8.16 11.95

Q326E earnings to soften QoQ on dividend and chem spread Warayut Luangmettakul, CFA

Analyst

Looking ahead, Q326 earnings could moderate QoQ due to lower seasonal dividend warayut.luangmettakul@ubs.com

income, softer chemical spreads and potentially weaker chemical volumes given a full +662-613 5753

quarter of LSP suspension. Any decision by SCC to restart the ROC and/or LSP facilities

could support volume recovery, but we believe this will remain uncertain and largely

depend on feedstock availability (particularly supplies through the Strait of Hormuz) and

customer order commitment amid an volatile raw-material pricing environment.

Q226E could support sentiment thought spread concerns still ahead

We believe the strong Q226E earnings could provide incremental support to market

sentiment, alongside the ongoing joint venture study with PTTGC in the near term.

However, this might be gradually offset by investor caution over the softer chemical

spread trend into Q326. Our Bt232 target price is based on 0.8x 2026E P/BV, in line with

historical valuation levels and our 2026 HDPE-naphtha spread assumption of US$401/

tonne.

Highlights (Btm) 12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25E 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E

Revenues 569,609 499,646 511,172 496,925 470,828 520,251 581,851 617,413

EBIT (UBS) 20,218 21,323 11,069 8,995 12,649 16,149 28,512 29,886

Net earnings (UBS) 22,405 15,474 5,057 1,529 6,320 9,797 19,461 20,432