Love Actuary: #197 - Reinsurers outperforming industry catastrophe trends since 2023

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Love Actuary: #197 - Reinsurers outperforming industry catastrophe trends since 2023

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

10 July 2026

Love Actuary

#197 - Reinsurers outperforming industry catastrophe

trends since 2023

• In this week’s Love Actuary, we consider how meaningful the change in European Insurance

AC attachment points was for the reinsurers. While the change appears to have Kamran M Hossain

been highly positive for current profitability, it suggests to us that pricing will (44-20) 3493-3780

continue to decline as margins remain well above historical averages. Our only kamran.hossain@jpmorgan.com

OW rated reinsurer is Munich Re, for whom we believe the company has Farooq Hanif

multiple levers to hit its EPS growth targets despite falling pricing. (44 207) 742-8091

farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

• Catastrophe loss assumptions have increased in recent years. Expectations Nadia Claressa

for catastrophe losses for the ‘average’ year have increased meaningfully in (44-20) 7134-7613

recent years, with Verisk assuming that the average year would have ~$150bn nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

of catastrophe losses in 2025 vs ~$80bn in 2020. By analysing annual Bingdi Fan, CFA

expectations of industry losses at the industry level versus actual losses, we set (44-20) 7742-5336

out whether a year is above or below ‘budget’ at the industry level. We then bingdi.fan@jpmorgan.com

compare this to how the European reinsurers fared versus their own company- J.P. Morgan Securities plc

specific budgets. Using this approach, if the year at the industry level is below

Specialist Sales contact details:

expectations then the reinsurers should theoretically also be below budget.

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -