A New Era: Resilience Matters

研报英文原文证据摘录

A New Era: Resilience Matters

Foundation

July 9, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Gas Utilities | Asia Pacific Tom Li

Equity Analyst

A New Era: Resilience Matters Tom.Li1@morganstanley.comEva Hou +852 2239-1059

Eva.Hou@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6964

We initiate on two gas utility stocks with a conservative view on

the segment’s fundamentals. Growth is moderating and risk-

reward looks balanced. We rate both EW, but prefer CR Gas as

the more resilient name, supported by a stronger balance sheet

and rising payout. China Utilities

Asia Pacific

We expect the gas supply-demand dynamic to remain loose through 2030. Major Industry View Attractive

gas distributors guided to conservative, low-single-digit gas volume growth in 2026,

Exhibit 1 : Initiating coverage on two China

and we expect China's gas demand to grow at 3% CAGR through 2030, implying 68

gas utility names

bcm of incremental demand over five years. However, on the supply side, domestic

Price target

shale gas development and abundant imports from both pipelines and long-term Company Ticker Rating (HK$) Upside to PT

CR Gas 1193.HK Equal-weight 17.00 11.8%

LNG contracts can provide ~113 bcm of additional supply. In the near term, the CGH 384.HK Equal-weight 5.90 8.5%

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a moderate-to- Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.

strong El Niño developing in fall 2026, which could lead to a warm winter and weigh

on gas demand growth.

Dollar margin could improve modestly, as residential cost pass-through

continues. We expect gas dollar margins to stay largely flat in 2026 and recover

moderately toward Rmb0.55-0.57/m3 by 2030. A sustained recovery back to

Rmb0.6/m3 or higher would require better-than-expected execution of residential