Mexico trip notes: Spicy sovereign, but credit fundamentals still have flavor

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Mexico trip notes: Spicy sovereign, but credit fundamentals still have flavor

J P M O R G A N Latin America Credit Research

09 July 2026

Mexico trip notes

Spicy sovereign, but credit fundamentals still have

flavor

EM Latin America Corporate

Research

Florencia Palacios AC

(1-212) 622-1129

florencia.x.palacios@jpmorgan.com

We spent a week in Mexico meeting with corporates, industry consultants, the Natalia Corfield AC

Ministry of Finance, and rating agencies, and returned less constructive on the (1-212) 834-9150

natalia.corfield@jpmorgan.com

sovereign than a year ago, with the recent downgrade, a deteriorating fiscal

Yuri R Fernandes

trajectory, and lingering USMCA uncertainty reinforcing a more tempered macro

(1-212) 622-3400

outlook. Nevertheless, we remain comfortable at the issuer level, as the yuri.r.fernandes@jpmorgan.com

transmission from sovereign stress to corporate balance sheets continues to appear J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

limited, underpinned by low leverage, strong liquidity, and diversified revenue

bases across most names, while banks retain sufficient buffers to absorb a

measured deterioration in asset quality. That said, valuations rather than

fundamentals are a binding constraint on more aggressive positioning, with the

CEMBI Mexico trading through its five-year average, leaving our Overweights

concentrated in financials, Pemex, and SCCO. See more details inside this report.

• On the sovereign, the recent downgrade and weaker fiscal trajectory were

central topics, reinforcing the sense that Mexico has less room for policy

slippage. Sentiment on Sheinbaum has also become more mixed, with slower

execution, fiscal pressures, and questions around how much she can distance

herself from AMLO’s legacy tempering the optimism we heard last year. At the