ECB minutes: That was easy

研报英文原文证据摘录

ECB minutes: That was easy

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

09 July 2026

Four weeks have passed between the ECB’s decision to hike rates by 25bp in June Economic and Policy Research

and today’s publication of the minutes. Energy prices are significantly lower, albeit Greg Fuzesi

with some renewed upward pressure this week. This makes it hard to read too much (44-20) 7134-8310

into the minutes as some of the upside risks from energy markets would now be greg.x.fuzesi@jpmorgan.com

assessed somewhat differently. A few things are nevertheless worth noting from J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the minutes.

First, the decision to hike in June was seen as very clear-cut. A lot of time was spent

stress-testing the decision, including via comparisons to 2011. However the

Governing Council looked at it, the available information clearly pointed to a hike

and there was no sense that this stress-testing was particularly difficult. Hardly any

counter-arguments were put forward during the debate. It also was noted explicitly

that the mild scenario had “almost three hikes” factored in, which contributed to

making the delivery of one hike easy as the mild scenario also showed core

inflation running above target even at the end of the forecasting horizon of end-

2028. The additional information received between the April and June meetings

confirmed the upside inflation pressures and meant that the decision to hike was

not seen as “precautionary” or as “insurance”. The option value of waiting for even

more information had declined “considerably”.

Second, the Governing Council was aware that the situation around Iran/Hormuz

could still move in either direction and that uncertainty was very high. This

encouraged them to stick firmly to the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting