PepsiCo: EPS Beat Driven by Int‘l & Below-the-Line, Offsetting Softer NA; Guidance Reiterated Helped by Tariff Refunds

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PepsiCo: EPS Beat Driven by Int‘l & Below-the-Line, Offsetting Softer NA; Guidance Reiterated Helped by Tariff Refunds

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

09 July 2026

PepsiCo

EPS Beat Driven by Int’l & Below-the-Line, Offseting Overweight

Softer NA; Guidance Reiterated Helped by Tariff PEP, PEP US

Refunds Price (08 Jul 26):$142.51

Beverage, Household & Personal

Our Take. The earnings beat was of lower quality, driven mostly by below-the-line Care Products

items and OSG came in a tick below expectations as North America Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC

underperformance was offset by stronger International. PFNA turned negative (1-212) 622-6735

again after a strong start in 1Q26 with volumes decelerating to flat vs. +2% in 1Q andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com

with management noting that U.S. food and beverage category performance Drew Levine, CFA

moderated in the second quarter as consumers faced higher inflationary pressures. (1-212) 622-0374

drew.levine@jpmorgan.com

Management reiterated guidance (in line with our expectations and preview), but

Shovana Chowdhury

is now expecting a more gradual improvement in trends in North America and is

(1-212) 270-2184

now embedding a ~1 point benefit to EPS from tariff refunds in the guidance shovana.chowdhury@jpmorgan.com

(mostly occurring in 3Q and allocated to PBNA, with the company likely to use J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

these tariff refunds to offset higher COGS and reinvest in A&M to reignite

volumes). The company is also pointing to 4Q-weighted EPS growth in 2H. PEP

turnaround is deep and investors should not expect a straight line as with most

restructurings in CPGs, yet we think investors will need to get more reassurance

in consumption data ahead in order to feel more confident that the ingredient