Taiwan: Imports outpaced exports in June: Downside risk to 2Q GDP as net trade may turn into a drag

研报英文原文证据摘录

Taiwan: Imports outpaced exports in June: Downside risk to 2Q GDP as net trade may turn into a drag

Tingting Ge Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A N(852) 2800-0143 09 July 2026

tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com

Korea, and Europe.

Price effects aside, net trade may have flipped into a drag, a downside risk to 2Q GDP.

We estimate headline export prices (in USD terms) edged down 0.3%m/m sa after rising for

13 consecutive months, while import prices fell 1.8%. In real terms, exports declined 4.4%m/

m sa, pulling the trend pace down to 2.8%3m/3m saar; meanwhile, the 2.2% gain in imports

kept the trend pace elevated at 24.8%. For 2Q as a whole, imports rose 35.1%oya, outpacing

exports’ 20.7% for the first time since 2Q2023. This points to net trade turning into a net drag

on GDP growth after a 11.2%pts lift over the prior two quarters. We see this as an important

source of 2Q downside risk, though the import strength could also signal a pick-up in

investment and/or inventory momentum.

Major tech firms’ revenue guidance suggests upside to AI upcycle momentum, tilting

2H risk to the upside. TSMC guides firmer demand visibility, a more aggressive 2027–29

capacity posture (leading-edge nodes plus advanced packaging), and a higher Datacenter AI

growth trajectory as accelerators broaden and AI CPUs emerge as a meaningful incremental

driver. In parallel, Hon Hai’s results/guidance underscore continued AI server momentum,

with 2Q revenue beating consensus on stronger rack shipments, and management still

guiding for QoQ growth in 3Q. Together, these read-throughs argue that AI-driven compute

spend remains resilient, with potential for a higher-for-longer capex and supply-chain build

cycle into 2H, upside to economic growth.

Taiwan: External trade performance