Jasa Marga Valuation alone won’t drive outperformance; downgrade to N

研报英文原文证据摘录

Jasa Marga Valuation alone won’t drive outperformance; downgrade to N

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

09 July 2026

Jasa Marga ▼Neutral

Previous: Overweight

Valuation alone won’t drive outperformance; downgrade JSMR.JK, JSMR IJ

Price (09 Jul 26):Rp2,690

to N ▼Price Target (Dec-27):Rp2,800

Prior (Dec-26):Rp5,175

We downgrade JSMR to N with a new Dec-27 PT of Rp2,800/sh. We see limited Indonesia Infrastructure & Utilities

ACnear-term catalysts to drive positive earnings revisions and our forecasts suggest Arnanto Januri

only 1% earnings CAGR in 2026-28E. We expect this to limit stock (622-1) 5291 8047

outperformance as the share price has historically tracked earnings revisions, with arnanto.januri@jpmorgan.com

EPS growth justifying a re-rating. While the 4–5% estimated dividend yield offers PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

some support, it is less compelling than the 12M SRBI yields of 7.5–8% amid tight Benny Kurniawan, CFA

system liquidity. Due to JSMR’s low liquidity (US$1mn 3M ADTV), we are (62-21) 5291 8024

benny.kurniawan@jpmorgan.com

shifting to a longer-term valuation approach, now valuing the stock at 0.5x 2027E PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

P/B, based on 8.1% ROE, 12.3% cost of equity, and 4% long-term growth (largely

Karen Li, CFA

a function of tariff adjustments). The stock trades at a historical low of 6x P/E, but (852) 2800-8589

lower rates—a key catalyst for re-rating—are unlikely in the next 3–6 months, karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com

capping near-term upside despite the cheap valuation. J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

• Cheap valuations alone are not enough to drive outperformance.We

upgraded the stock to OW in November 2025 on the basis of valuation. While

Key Changes (FYE Dec)