Spain Banks: Thoughts into 2Q26 results

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Spain Banks: Thoughts into 2Q26 results

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09 Jul 2026 04:32:12 ET │ 32 pages

Spain Banks

Thoughts into 2Q26 results

CITI'S TAKE

Borja Ramirez Segura AC

SAN kicks off Spanish banks’ 2Q26 results season on 22nd July. We expect +44-20-7508-0206

reassuring 2Q26 results, with investor focus on 2026E profitability borja.ramirez@citi.com

guidance. Inside we provide recently updated estimates for Spanish

domestic banks (assuming ECB rate reaches 2.5% in 2026 and remains Anand Demble

stable thereafter), alongside summarized NII waterfalls and sensitivities. +44-20-7986-4056

We have Buy ratings on all Spanish banks, bar SAB and UNI (both Neutral- anand.gopal.demble@citi.com

rated). Our top picks among the domestics into the quarter are BKT and

CABK. On the other side of the spectrum, we expect UNI to show results in- Andre Nemec

line with consensus (which may underwhelm, especially as the stock has +44-20-7986-2889

outperformed the SX7E by c.13pp since early March 2026). We are more andre.nemec@citi.com

cautious than consensus on 2Q26E LLPs for SAN and on costs for BBVA.

Key risks remain macro / rates outlook, and investor positioning. Gustavo Schroden

+55-11-4009-5858

# Focus on international banks gustavo.schroden@citi.com

Brian Flores, CFASAN — Our 2Q26E underlying net profit is c.€3.7bn, in-line with consensus, with

stronger fees offsetting more conservative LLPs (especially in Brazil and Argentina). +55-11-4009-2842

However, after accounting for c.€-0.5bn of TSB restructuring charges, our reported luis.brian.flores@citi.com

net profit is c.€3.2bn, below the €3.55bn from VA consensus, which may not fully

reflect these restructuring costs. Inside we analyse Brazil asset quality and macro.

BBVA — Our 2Q26E net profit is c.-5% below VA consensus, mainly due to higher