Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 8

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE C$19.50 BASE CASE C$13.20 BEAR CASE C$7.50

2026e Cu at $6.90/lb, extended LOM; bull 2026e Cu at $6.11/lb; on schedule; base 2026e Cu at $5.48/lb; project delay; bear

case DCF case DCF case DCF

Demand is stronger than expected, driving Copper averages $5.66/lb from 2026-30e. Copper averages $4.83/lb from 2026-

base metals prices higher. Kamoa-Kakula life Kamoa-Kakula smelter, Platreef & Kipushi 30e. US enters a mild recession and demand

of mine is extended according to the projects are on-time and budget, according softens, negatively impacting metals

Preliminary Economic Analysis (PEA) results. to updated company schedule. Gradual demand and leading base metals prices

Assign value to Western Forelands by restart of Kakula mining activities through lower. Platreef & Kipushi projects are

applying a $0.10/lb CuEq EV-to- 2026 and 2027. Assign value to Western slightly delayed and over-budget. Gradual

Resource multiple on its resource of ~20bn Forelands by applying a $0.10/lb CuEq EV- restart of Kakula mining activities through

lbs Cu and attribute 100% of the implied to-Resource multiple on its maiden resource 2026 & 2027 and we remove 10 years from

value to the SoP.