3 Debates & 9 Views post initiation

研报英文原文证据摘录

3 Debates & 9 Views post initiation

ics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

intensity. We agree with both sides: we are confident in ONTO’s 2027 growth ** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

profile, but we share the bears’ concerns around process control intensity beyond e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

2027. 3) Valuation: Bulls argue for multiple expansion on the back of GM% Quarterly EPS ($)

2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

expansion, while bears argue that 2026 growth is partially inorganic and that there Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

are still questions around 2027. We are bullish, as whichever way we look at it — Q1 1.51 - 1.42a - 2.47

Q2 1.25 - 1.66 - 2.69

EPS CAGR or GM% — ONTO appears mispriced. Q3 0.92 - 2.03 - 2.94

Q4 1.26 - 2.21 - 3.13

Very positive risk/reward; confidence in our call. ONTO trades at 25x/20x CY27/ e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

CY28 MSe versus large cap SPE at 33x/28x and our broader coverage at 29x/25x.

Despite this discount, ONTO has the highest EPS CAGR in our coverage universe

and a clear path to GM% expansion. We think JunQ earnings could be a positive

catalyst for the stock for two reasons: 1) Advanced Packaging: We see upside to

ONTO’s 50%+ advanced packaging growth forecast, as OSATs are pulling in

inspection systems for 2.5D logic applications. We are not entirely sure whether

ONTO will formally revise its guide, but we do think the company will indicate there

is upside to forecasts. 2) 2027: We are confident in ONTO’s growth profile, and we

think customer orders are extending into 2027. We expect another strong year in

2027 and we think ONTO has some line of sight towards around strong year.