Nordic Savings Platforms: Q2 preview: Markets, FX and Activity strength

研报英文原文证据摘录

Nordic Savings Platforms: Q2 preview: Markets, FX and Activity strength

Global Research

7 July 2026ab

Nordic Savings Platforms Equities

SwedenQ2 preview: Markets, FX and Activity strength

Banks

Haley Tam

Into Q2: Upside to consensus revenue expectations Analyst

We see favourable tailwinds for Q2 results (AZA 14 June, SAVE 17 June): 1) Strong haley.tam@ubs.com

positive markets and favourable FX (weaker SEK) should support fund related income; 2) +44-20-7567 6176

Monthly statistics have shown strength and resilience in trading activity and customer Johan Ekblom, CFA

growth, supportive for net transaction related income. 3) UBSe net commission (non Analyst

interest) income for Q2 is 7% above Visible Alpha consensus for Nordnet, 6% for johan.ekblom@ubs.com

Avanza. But - beyond Q2, interest rate hiking expectations have moderated since Q1. +44-20-7568 3580

This is the key driver for UBSe Nordnet 2028E EPS well below consensus. Amit Jagadeesh

Analyst

Updating our estimates, UBS Q2e 4-7% above consensus amit.jagadeesh@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 9705

Following last week's statistics and ahead of Q2 reports next week, we updated our

forecasts for Avanza on Friday, and for Nordnet today. We raise 2026E, 2027E Nordnet Michael Werner

EPS forecasts by 2-3% reflecting higher net commission income forecasts only partially Analyst

offset by lower net interest income expectations. Forecast EPS falls 2-3% for 2028E, michael.werner@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 8086

2029E as lower NII expectations (Norway, Denmark and ECB) then dominate. Our

2026E-29E Avanza forecasts rose by 4-6% reflecting both higher fund commissions and

net interest income, due to higher average STIBOR year to date (benefiting interest

income on the liquidity portfolio), at the same time as a shift later in our expectations for