Siemens Healthineers AG: Revisiting the thesis, staying Neutral

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Siemens Healthineers AG: Revisiting the thesis, staying Neutral

Siemens Healthineers AG UBS Research

Executive summary

Several overhangs continue to weigh on sentiment, including weakness in Diagnostics,

the ongoing parent stake spin, inflationary pressures, and uncertainty in China. While

these issues are largely understood and, in our view, broadly reflected in the share price,

meaningful resolution is unlikely before 2027. Looking beyond these headwinds, we see

a compelling longer-term growth story driven by product innovation, with Siemens

Healthineers well positioned to gain share in Imaging through its leading photon-

counting CT and helium-free MRI portfolios, while the new Varian platform could prove

transformational. Despite attractive valuation metrics, including a 15x 2026E P/E and a

projected 10% EPS CAGR to 2030, we remain cautious given lingering overhangs,

slightly below-consensus earnings expectations, and the continued uncertainty around

the parent stake spin. Consequently, we remain Neutral and lower our price target to

€38 from €41, primarily reflecting a higher cost of capital and reduced earnings

assumptions.

Several overhangs still in play

We see four key investor overhangs: Diagnostics, the parent stake, inflation, and China.

Diagnostics has had a challenging 2026, with earnings expected to fall by over 60%,

largely due to China, reducing confidence in a near-term asset sale. The parent stake

spin and any subsequent selldowns are unlikely to be completed before next year,

leaving an overhang through 2026. Inflationary pressures, particularly from metals and

memory chips, could weigh on 2027 margins, with investors likely seeking clearer

guidance in November 2026. Meanwhile, soft market conditions and renewed anti-