Operational 2Q26: SoS dropping QoQ but still solid post repricing; good cash generation

研报英文原文证据摘录

Operational 2Q26: SoS dropping QoQ but still solid post repricing; good cash generation

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 35.3%

Forecast dividend yield 12.2%

Forecast stock return 47.5%

Market return assumption 18.5%

Forecast excess return 29.0%

Company Description

Cury is a real estate company focused on low-income developments that was founded in

1963, highly correlated with the government's financial housing system, especially at the

higher end of the social housing program. The company has a business model focusing on

the metropolitan regions of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the most profitable markets for

real estate projects in the country.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value Cury based on PE methodology backed by a DCF.

The main risks include: The FGTS available budget: FGTS (workers fund), the main fund

of the social housing program (MCMV), losing sustainability due to: 1) changes in the

destination of resources to address other sectors of the economy (such as sanitation and

infrastructure); and 2) a considerable increase in FGTS withdrawals. Both points could

reduce the resources available to the real estate sector, damaging the health of MCMV.

MCMV housing program sustainability: The non-implementation, cancellation,

suspension or thinning out of MCMV by the government may affect the conduct of the

company's business and results, given the large exposure the company has to these

projects. Material cost increases: Since Cury recognizes revenue from property sales

according to the accounting method of financial evolution of construction, an increase in

the cost of an incorporated project may reduce revenue and previously calculated

profit. Thus, increases in the prices of construction materials due to inflation can