2Q26 Post-Acute Care and Other Providers Preview: Industry Backdrop Should Continue to Serve as a Tailwind for Volumes, but Not Without Some Noise

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Post-Acute Care and Other Providers Preview: Industry Backdrop Should Continue to Serve as a Tailwind for Volumes, but Not Without Some Noise

Healthcare Facilities & Managed Care UBS Research

post-acute care 2Q preview

Company Specific Thoughts Entering 2Q Earnings

Specialty Providers

BrightSpring (BTSG)

BTSG had a strong start to the year, with the 1Q outperformance driven by stronger than

projected revenues in both the pharmacy and provider segments. Specialty and infusion

grew ~36% Y/Y in the quarter, which management said was driven by limited

distribution drugs (LDDs) coming on better than expected, while branded conversions

were favorable and fee-for-service also came in better. In terms of the provider segment,

all sub-segments saw strong growth in 1Q. The company continues to work on

executing on additional efficiency gains across the enterprise, which should drive

additional earnings growth this year. There were some concerns earlier this year around

a potential slowdown in Specialty drugs noted by some manufacturers and also pressure

from PBMs in the infusion market (as seen with OPCH). However, BTSG has not seen any

impact on the specialty front, while the company's comparatively smaller size in the

chronic infusion book makes it view the market as a market share growth opportunity

versus a risk. We continue to look for BTSG to generate strong cash flow generation this

year, which should allow it to look for additional M&A opportunities. We continue to

appreciate BTSG's earnings growth trajectory (one of the highest in the post-acute

sector) and cash flow generation and reiterate our Buy rating on BTSG.

Model Forecasts

Heading into 2Q results, we forecast $3,633 mln in revenues for the quarter and $195

mln in adjusted EBITDA.