US Economic Perspectives: June CPI Preview: Beginning to ease?

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US Economic Perspectives: June CPI Preview: Beginning to ease?

their computers in late June. So far we have seen little pick up in CPI computer

prices, but that is an upside risk to our forecast.

JD Power data suggests another month of muted vehicle price changes, with both

new car and truck prices (-0.06%) and used vehicles prices (-0.38%) projected to

decline on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Owners' equivalent rent (OER), the largest single component in the CPI, and

tenants' rent (aka rent of primary residence) are both expected to slow further this

month, in part due to the general slowing trend in housing rents and in part due to

panel effects from the relatively strong increase in rents the last time these units

were sampled in December. That said, our models were surprised to the upside last

month and it is possible that differences in measurement are leading new tenants

lease rents to be a less reliable leading indicator of the CPI rent trend with CPI rents

returning to a more normal pace over the past year. New tenant lease rents have

shown some sign of picking up in the past few months, but given the estimated

year-plus lag, our models suggest that CPI rents should continue to slow well into

next year.

Core non-rent services are projected to see a 0.35% increase in June, a strong

increase that is close to the average over the past 6 months. Given the lags

inherent in the CPI collection procedures we still expect a notable increase in

airfares in June from the rise in jet fuel prices. Additionally, Smith Travel Research

data suggests increasing hotel prices, and we think there are risks for a larger

increase given world cup effects. The S&P Global data shows the share of US

consumer services firms rasing output prices remains elevated.