AeroVironment: FY30 Targets Hint at Growth Potential; Market Wants to Gain Confidence

研报英文原文证据摘录

AeroVironment: FY30 Targets Hint at Growth Potential; Market Wants to Gain Confidence

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

08 July 2026

AeroVironment Overweight

AVAV, AVAV US

FY30 Targets Hint at Growth Potential; Market Wants to Price (08 Jul 26):$157.78

Gain Confidence Price Target (Dec-26):$200.00

Management outlined an FY30 framework calling for $3.5-4.0b of revenue and an Aerospace & Defense

AC18-20% adjusted EBITDA margin, both above consensus and our estimates, but Seth M. Seifman, CFA

the stock underperformed by 2.6%, reflecting some market skepticism. AVAV (1-212) 622-5597

trades at only 11.5x the mid-point of FY30 adj EBITDA guide or ~14x if we seth.m.seifman@jpmorgan.com

discount back 2.5 years, which is not very different from where the defense primes Rocco J Barbero

trade on CY27. Investor caution likely reflects both industry factors, like budget (1-212) 622-8140

uncertainty and a slow pace of awards, and company-specific ones, like the SCAR rocco.j.barbero@jpmorgan.com

cancelation/restatement and quarterly volatility in results. The market, then, wants Alexander Ladd

to see evidence of AVAV progressing toward its targets and the earliest indications (1-212) 622-0077

alex.ladd@jpmorgan.com

could come from awards in the coming months, including for directed energy J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

systems (i.e. E-HEL). We do see many ways for AV to win and recent personnel

and board changes as well as investments show a determination to capture the

growth opportunities available and execute on them. We remain OW and our Dec- Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Apr)

26 price target is unchanged at $200; it is based on 4.5x our CY27 sales estimate Adj. EPS ($)

of $2.4b. 2026A 2027E 2028E

Q1 0.31 0.06

• Multiple platforms underpin mgmt’s 15-20% growth outlook.