US Treasury Market Daily: The future’s uncertain

研报英文原文证据摘录

US Treasury Market Daily: The future’s uncertain

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

08 July 2026

US Treasury Market Daily

The future’s uncertain

Fixed Income Strategy

Jay Barry AC

(1-212) 834-4951

john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com

Jason Hunter AC

• Yields rose 2-5bp across the curve amid a resurgence of geopolitical headlines, (1-212)jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com270-0034

though Treasuries outperformed most other DM government bond markets

Harry Downie into the sell-off

(1-212) 270-9500

• The minutes to the June FOMC meeting reflected the hawkish shift from the harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com

April meeting also seen in the statement and press conference, though the Liam L Wash

discussion of the outlook for monetary policy provided little conclusions, (1-212) 834-5230

perhaps reflecting Chair Warsh’s focus on paring down forward guidance liam.wash@jpmchase.com

Amanda Berke

• Treasury will complete its mid-month supply process with the auction of $22bn (1-212) 834-5739

reopened 30-year bonds at 1pm tomorrow. Given a higher level of outright amanda.berke@jpmorgan.com

yields, a more supportive macro backdrop, and supportive technicals, we think J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

tomorrow’s auction can likely be digested smoothly

• The 5s/30s curve steepening trend stalled at 78-82bp favored resistance. Enter

a new flattening trade and look for more range trading above the 59-62bp

support zone over the near term

Statistics for various on-the-run Treasury yields, curve spreads, and TIPS

breakevens

1d chg WTD chg QTD chg YTD chg

Close (bp) (bp) (bp) (bp) 3m avg 3m low 3m high 3m pctl.

4wk 3.63 -1.1 -2.7 -4.6 6.4 3.65 3.60 3.69 33%

8wk 3.71 -0.6 0.4 -1.6 11.1 3.68 3.63 3.73 74%

13wk 3.81 2.0 5.3 -0.6 17.6 3.7 3.65 3.82 97%

17wk 3.86 0.0 2.0 -0.6 23.3 3.74 3.68 3.89 89%