Uruguay: Main takeaways from the Accountability bill and CFA assessment

研报英文原文证据摘录

Uruguay: Main takeaways from the Accountability bill and CFA assessment

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

08 July 2026

Uruguay

Main takeaways from the Accountability bill and CFA

assessment

• Net spending increases to fund social priorities are small, relying heavily Economic and Policy Research

on budget reallocations Lucila Barbeito

• Structural fiscal targets reaffirmed despite weaker growth, with a change (54-11)lucila.barbeito@jpmorgan.com4348-7229

in the composition mix in 2026 JPMorgan Chase Bank Sucursal Buenos Aires

• Fiscal consolidation remains highly sensitive to growth disappointments,

exposing debt dynamics

Last week the government submitted to Congress the 2025 Accountability Bill

(“Rendición de Cuentas”), followed by the Autonomous Fiscal Council’s (CFA)

report published yesterday. Below we flag key takeaways and implications for the

near- and medium-term fiscal and debt trajectories.

Accountability Report reallocations: small headline cost,

but limited permanent funding clarity

At the center of the bill is a limited net increase in expenditures over 2027-2029

period vs. the Budget law path of US$121mn equivalent (US$31.4mn in 2027, US

$43mn in 2028 and US$47mn in 2029), representing less than 0.1% of GDP per

year. The gross allocation of resources across priority programs is larger than the

net fiscal impact, because the package is designed to rely heavily on savings and

reassignments within the central administration. While the amounts are cautious

and consistent with a constrained fiscal backdrop, the CFA stresses that even a

modest net increase in spending is a permanent commitment that should be

matched by clearly identified permanent financing. The only quantified new